Selection of 51 predictors from 13,782 candidate multimodal features using machine learning improves coronary artery disease prediction.
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| Abstract | Current cardiovascular risk assessment tools use a small number of predictors. Here, we study how machine learning might: (1) enable principled selection from a large multimodal set of candidate variables and (2) improve prediction of incident coronary artery disease (CAD) events. An elastic net-based Cox model (ML4H) trained and evaluated in 173,274 UK Biobank participants selected 51 predictors from 13,782 candidates. Beyond most traditional risk factors, ML4H selected a polygenic score, waist circumference, socioeconomic deprivation, and several hematologic indices. A more than 30-fold gradient in 10-year risk estimates was noted across ML4H quintiles, ranging from 0.25% to 7.8%. ML4H improved discrimination of incident CAD (C-statistic = 0.796) compared with the Framingham risk score, pooled cohort equations, and QRISK3 (range 0.754-0.761). This approach to variable selection and model assessment is readily generalizable to a broad range of complex datasets and disease endpoints. |
| Year of Publication | 2021
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| Journal | Patterns (N Y)
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| Volume | 2
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| Issue | 12
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| Pages | 100364
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| Date Published | 2021 Dec 10
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| ISSN | 2666-3899
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| DOI | 10.1016/j.patter.2021.100364
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| PubMed ID | 34950898
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| PubMed Central ID | PMC8672148
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| Grant list | MC_PC_17228 / MRC_ / Medical Research Council / United Kingdom
MC_QA137853 / MRC_ / Medical Research Council / United Kingdom
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