Bayesian risk prediction model for colorectal cancer mortality through integration of clinicopathologic and genomic data.
| Authors | |
| Abstract | Routine tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging of colorectal cancer is imperfect in predicting survival due to tumor pathobiological heterogeneity and imprecise assessment of tumor spread. We leveraged Bayesian additive regression trees (BART), a statistical learning technique, to comprehensively analyze patient-specific tumor characteristics for the improvement of prognostic prediction. Of 75 clinicopathologic, immune, microbial, and genomic variables in 815 stage II-III patients within two U.S.-wide prospective cohort studies, the BART risk model identified seven stable survival predictors. Risk stratifications (low risk, intermediate risk, and high risk) based on model-predicted survival were statistically significant (hazard ratios 0.19-0.45, vs. higher risk; P < 0.0001) and could be externally validated using The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) data (P = 0.0004). BART demonstrated model flexibility, interpretability, and comparable or superior performance to other machine-learning models. Integrated bioinformatic analyses using BART with tumor-specific factors can robustly stratify colorectal cancer patients into prognostic groups and be readily applied to clinical oncology practice. |
| Year of Publication | 2023
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| Journal | NPJ precision oncology
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| Volume | 7
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| Issue | 1
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| Pages | 57
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| Date Published | 06/2023
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| ISSN | 2397-768X
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| DOI | 10.1038/s41698-023-00406-8
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| PubMed ID | 37301916
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