A Polygenic Risk Score to Predict Incident Heart Failure Across the Spectrum of Cardiovascular Risk.

Journal of the American College of Cardiology
Authors
Keywords
Abstract

BACKGROUND: The clinical utility of a heart failure (HF) polygenic risk score (PRS) is uncertain.OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to investigate the ability of an HF PRS to predict new-onset HF in individuals across the spectrum of cardiovascular risk.METHODS: An HF PRS (>1 million single nucleotide variations) was used to stratify individuals from 7 clinical studies to low (quintile [Q] 1), intermediate (Q2-Q4), or high (Q5) genetic risk. In 6 trials of patients at elevated cardiovascular risk, HRs adjusted for clinical factors were derived for the risk of hospitalization for HF using Cox-PH models, and discrimination and calibration was explored. Analyses were conducted in a separate data set of individuals at low cardiovascular risk.RESULTS: We studied 74,897 patients without HF, of which 51,627 were at elevated cardiovascular risk (median age 65 years; 71% men; median follow-up 2.5 years). After adjusting for clinical factors, individuals with intermediate and high HF PRS carried a 2- and 5-fold increased rate of new-onset HF, respectively (intermediate risk: HR: 2.01 [95% CI: 1.62-2.49]; P < 0.001; high-risk: HRadj: 5.00 [95% CI: 3.99-6.27]; P < 0.001). Addition of the HF PRS to a clinical model improved the AUC (0.787 [95% CI: 0.775-0.798] to 0.822 [95% CI: 0.811-0.832]). Results were consistent in 23,270 individuals at low cardiovascular risk over 20-year follow-up.CONCLUSIONS: An HF PRS is a strong and independent predictor for new-onset HF in individuals across the spectrum of cardiovascular risk. The polygenic contribution to HF is complementary to established clinical risk assessment.

Year of Publication
2025
Journal
Journal of the American College of Cardiology
Volume
86
Issue
12
Pages
860-873
Date Published
09/2025
ISSN
1558-3597
DOI
10.1016/j.jacc.2025.06.050
PubMed ID
40864011
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