AHA PREVENT Equations and Cardiovascular Disease Risk in Diverse Health Care Populations.

Journal of the American College of Cardiology
Authors
Keywords
Abstract

BACKGROUND: The American Heart Association's Predicting Risk of cardiovascular Events (PREVENT) aims to improve cardiovascular risk prediction. Whether PREVENT suitably predicts 10-year incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) in health care populations is unknown.OBJECTIVES: This study sought to evaluate the calibration and discrimination of the PREVENT equations across integrated U.S. health care systems.METHODS: We retrospectively evaluated electronic health records of 270,320 patients (Mass General Brigham [MGB]: 136,654; Mount Sinai Health: 43,321; Penn Medicine: 56,889; Vanderbilt University Medical Center: 33,456) aged 30 to 79 years and without prior ASCVD from 2010 to 2014. We compared 10-year estimated ASCVD risk based on PREVENT and empirically observed first ASCVD event over a 10-year follow-up. Calibration was assessed based on Greenwood-Nam-d'Agostino test, discordance, and mean calibration. Discrimination was assessed with the use of the time-dependent Harrell's C-index.RESULTS: Based on PREVENT, the mean estimated 10-year ASCVD risk was 4.9% ± 4.7% in MGB (mean age 54 years, 42% female), 6.0% ± 5.6% in Mount Sinai (mean age 56 years, 54% female), 6.0% ± 5.2% in Penn (mean age 58 years, 55% female), and 4.8% ± 1.3% in Vanderbilt (mean age 60 years, 51% female). Although PREVENT underestimated the observed incidence rate in MGB (discordance: -71.0%), Mount Sinai (discordance: -36.2%), and Vanderbilt (discordance: -40.0%), it more closely mirrored the empirical rate in Penn (+1.3%). Overall, PREVENT yielded moderate discrimination C-index in MGB (0.70 [95% CI: 0.70-0.70]), Mount Sinai (0.74 [95% CI: 0.73-0.75]), Penn (0.69 [95% CI: 0.68-0.70]), and Vanderbilt (0.73 [95% CI: 0.72-0.74]). Nevertheless, calibration differed by sex, with greater underestimation among women in MGB (discordance: -80.7%) and Vanderbilt (discordance: -55.5%) but among men in Mount Sinai (discordance: -40.7%). The race and ethnicity-stratified predictive performance varied across health care systems. Compared with the pooled cohort equations, PREVENT demonstrated better overall calibration in Penn (+2.5% vs +93.6%) but worse in MGB (-70.0% vs -41.6%) and Mount Sinai (-36.4% vs 4.8%), notwithstanding comparable discrimination. The PREVENT predictive performance further differed with better discrimination among patients without diabetes mellitus or antihypertensives.CONCLUSIONS: The PREVENT model moderately discriminated ASCVD incidence across 4 geographically distinct academic health care systems in the United States. However, calibration metrics varied widely across health care systems, sociodemographics, and underlying cardiometabolic comorbidities.

Year of Publication
2025
Journal
Journal of the American College of Cardiology
Volume
86
Issue
3
Pages
181-192
Date Published
07/2025
ISSN
1558-3597
DOI
10.1016/j.jacc.2025.04.066
PubMed ID
40669956
Links